Terrorism in 2008
Summary
2008 was a fairly schizophrenic year in terms of terrorism and counter-terror activity. Iraq became a safer place, Afghanistan and Pakistan became more dangerous, and prospects for an Iranian-American war faded into history (at least for the moment). While suicide bombers and other low-casualty attacks continued throughout the world, the year can be boiled down in to a few key events.
February 1st, Baghdad: two women with severe mental disabilities are strapped with explosives and remotely detonate in a crowded Iraqi market. The explosions kill 98 and wound over 2000.
July 7, Kabul: A suicide-attacker piloting an explosives laden vehicle drives in to the Indian Embassy in Afghanistan.
August 13, Tripoli: A suitcase bomb detonates at 7:45AM in proximity of a crowded civilian bus. The targets appear to be Lebanese soldiers.
September 6, Peshawar: Two truck bombs, one immediately and the other hours later, detonated in northern Pakistan, killing nearly 50 people at a paramilitary checkpoint.
September 13, Delhi: Multiple bombs explode around Delhi, killing nearly 30 people.
October 9, Islamabad: Terrorists attack a main police barracks in the Pakistani capital.
Nov 26-29: Armed terrorists attack various targets throughout Mumbai, killing scores.
There are, of course, hundreds of other attacks that occurred throughout the year. These, for me, represent marquee attacks in their scale, timing, and media attention.
Places that have become MORE dangerous throughout 2008: Peshawar (Pakistan), Mumbai (India), Delhi (India), Islamabad (Pakistan), Tripoli (Lebanon), Swat Valley (Pakistan).
Places that have become LESS dangerous: Baghdad (Iraq), Jerusalem (Israel).
Impact of global recession
Terrorist activity, militant insurgencies, and fundamentalist violence often plague regions of the world that are already economically depressed. The global recession, most of which is having a dramatic impact in the western and developed world, does not directly translate to terror organizations. There will probably be implications for law enforcement in the coming year, such as budget deficits, personnel reductions, and less equipment.
Which event deserved more coverage than it got?
The progress in Iraq and the lack of armed confrontation with Iran deserved FAR GREATER media attention. If you go back and examine media broadcasts from 2005 to 2007, it's amazing just how intolerable the situation in Iraq was becoming. Nowadays it is far from safe, but also far from spiraling out of control. I understand the media's inability to accurately report this. In Iraq, no news is good news. I think it's a bit naïve to imagine major news corporations reporting NO news.
As for Iran, I think it's quite significant how easily one nation can drift towards war with another, and then how easy it is to forget that war felt inevitable. Again, I understand that the media is not in the business of reporting a lack of news, but I did find the administrations constant war-chatter, then its absence, quite amusing and troubling.
A widely held misconception about terrorism
I cringe when I hear the word "evil' used in political or theoretical discourse. While many (including myself) find terrorist activity disgusting and vile, it is a significant mistake to view these politically motivated actors in religious or spiritual terms. Likewise, it's easy for pundits and politicians to think of these people as insane or irrational. As a result, western publics misconceive these terrorists in these terms. On the contrary, they are neither irrational nor insane, and I'll spare the religious classifications for those in the clergy. In their own terms, they are acting for what they consider to be just and good using the only methods available to them. Counter-terrorist elements would be well advised to understand their enemies in these terms and not reduce them to babbling lunatics.
Forecast for 2009
I expect more of the same. There is always the chance of attack on major western targets, but nothing to suggest any difference in risk level between 2008 and 2009. I do predict that India and Pakistan will continue to be at a very high risk throughout the coming year. I also hold high hopes for some sort of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue under the leadership of the new American administration.
